Favourable draws can be a dangerous thing. They invite relief, then expectation, then the faintly queasy realisation that the whole thing still has to be earned.
For the Republic of Ireland, the route to the 2027 Women’s World Cup in Brazil now has a shape. Carla Ward’s side have been drawn against Kazakhstan in the first round of the European play-offs, with the tie to be played over two legs between October 7 and 13. Ireland will travel away first before hosting the second leg at home, with Tallaght Stadium or the Aviva Stadium expected to stage the return.
Win that, and the road narrows sharply. Belgium or Poland will await in the second round, played between November 26 and December 5, with Ireland again due to have the home second leg if they progress.
On paper, Kazakhstan is the draw Ireland would have wanted. Ranked 100th in the world and 79 places below Ireland, they were the lowest-ranked side Ward’s team could face. The first leg brings a long away trip and the sort of logistical irritation that never appears on a tactics board, yet in footballing terms Ireland will be expected to progress.
For much of the modern history of the Ireland women’s national team, expectation was something that belonged to other countries. Ireland chased moments, openings, scraps of opportunity. The 2023 World Cup changed that. The current campaign has deepened it. A team that once entered these conversations as an outsider now enters them as a seeded side, a League A team, and a group capable of beating strong opponents under serious pressure.
That is the real significance of this draw. Kazakhstan is the first assignment. Belgium or Poland is the examination.
Ireland know both possible second-round opponents well. Poland were beaten twice during the group stage, first in a 3-2 away win in Gdansk and then in a 1-0 victory at the Aviva Stadium, where Marissa Sheva scored the decisive goal in front of 18,267 supporters. Those results helped Ireland secure third place in a difficult group behind France and the Netherlands, and turned what could have been a grim League A campaign into something far more substantial.
The Poland wins showed a team learning how to manage tight games. The home victory in Dublin was no procession. Poland, led by Ewa Pajor, carried a threat, and Ireland needed defensive concentration from Courtney Brosnan and a decisive attacking moment from Sheva to hold their position. There was little glamour in it. There was plenty of evidence.
Belgium would bring a different kind of memory. Ireland edged the Red Flames 5-4 on aggregate in last October’s Nations League promotion and relegation play-off, a tie that carried its own peculiar madness. Ireland won 4-2 at the Aviva Stadium, with Katie McCabe scoring twice and Sheva adding another, before a 2-1 defeat in Leuven still proved enough to survive the tie. Abbie Larkin’s late goal in Belgium was the kind of moment that alters the mood around a team. It kept Ireland in League A. That, in turn, became the platform for this qualifying campaign.
So Ireland’s possible final is less a leap into the unknown than a return to familiar terrain with higher stakes. Belgium are ranked above Ireland and would be the more dangerous opponent on ranking alone. Poland have already been beaten twice by Ward’s side, although repetition in sport is rarely as simple as memory makes it appear. A team beaten twice has information. A team that wins twice carries pressure.
The broader play-off format leaves little room for confusion. Thirty-two teams enter. Two rounds of home-and-away ties decide Europe’s remaining World Cup route. Seven of the eight second-round winners will qualify directly for Brazil. The remaining winner, based on the overall European Qualifiers ranking, will enter the inter-confederation play-offs in February 2027.
Ireland should be well placed to avoid that extra layer if they win both ties, given the strength of their group campaign and seeded status, though the final picture will depend on results across the full play-off field. The immediate task is clearer. Beat Kazakhstan. Then beat Belgium or Poland.
There is a temptation to see the Kazakhstan draw as the good news and the second round as the problem. That is partly true. It is also too soft. The value of the Kazakhstan tie is that it gives Ireland control. The danger is that it gives them no hiding place. A seeded League A team, chasing a second consecutive World Cup, facing the lowest-ranked possible opponent over two legs with the second leg at home, will be judged by a different standard.
Ward’s side have earned that weight through the campaign they have put together. The win over the Netherlands in Cork, sealed by Amber Barrett’s late goal, gave Ireland one of their great recent nights. The narrow defeat in France meant automatic qualification slipped away, yet the play-off place they carried from the group was still a mark of advancement. Ireland did more than survive in a hard section. They created a route.
Now they must walk it.
Play-off draw
First round path one:
Lithuania v Sweden
Romania v Norway
Greece v England
Croatia v Iceland
Kazakhstan v Republic of Ireland
Kosovo v Austria
Hungary v Netherlands
Belarus v Italy
First round path two:
Albania v Wales
Turkey v Slovenia
Slovakia v Ukraine
Israel v Switzerland
Belgium v Poland
Czech Republic v Scotland
Northern Ireland v Portugal
Finland v Serbia
Second round:
Slovakia or Ukraine v Greece or England
Finland or Serbia v Belarus or Italy
Northern Ireland or Portugal v Croatia or Iceland
Albania or Wales v Romania or Norway
Israel or Switzerland v Kosovo or Austria
Czech Republic or Scotland v Lithuania or Sweden
Belgium or Poland v Kazakhstan or the Republic of Ireland
Turkey or Slovenia v Hungary or Netherlands
